A large tropical wave of low pressure emerged off the coast of Africa at the start of this week. It has a high chance of becoming the next tropical depression, but it faces significant obstacles to further development and could struggle to intensify into a tropical storm or hurricane by next week.
As AccuWeather reports, the next predetermined name on the 2026 Atlantic tropical storm list is Dolly. Atlantic storm names are established years in advance, with lists reused every six years unless a name is retired and replaced.
Tropical development has been slow this season, even as the Atlantic approaches the time of year when storm numbers and intensity typically surge. An already strong and still-strengthening “super” El Niño is largely to blame, as it promotes widespread disruptive winds, known as wind shear. These winds alter the structure and circulation of storms and can deter development altogether.
A strong belt of wind shear has persisted across the Caribbean this season, at times extending into the Main Development Region, or MDR, of the central tropical Atlantic. Combined with large pockets of dry, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert, the wind shear has created a hostile environment for tropical development across much of the Atlantic basin.
“The coverage and intensity of thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave have fluctuated since Monday, as often happens with these systems,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “The wave looked a little more robust Wednesday morning and will move through an area of weak wind shear and higher moisture through the end of the week.”
“There is a window for development through the end of the week before the wave encounters stronger wind shear near the Leeward Islands,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “People in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor this tropical wave, which is expected to approach the Leeward Islands Sunday or Monday.”
At a minimum, the tropical wave could bring locally drenching showers, gusty thunderstorms and choppy seas to the Leeward Islands and perhaps the northern Windward Islands by early next week. If a strengthening tropical storm approaches, the islands could face flash flooding, damaging wind gusts and dangerous seas.
DaSilva explained that if the wave strengthens significantly, it could turn northward fairly soon and head out to sea, in which case it would never pose a threat to the United States. However, if the wave remains a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, it could track much farther west and become a concern for Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and perhaps the mainland United States later next week, DaSilva added. Ocean waters near and north of the Caribbean are warm enough to support development, provided other atmospheric conditions become favorable.
Peak of Atlantic hurricane season approaches as El Niño intensifies
From a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic basin is much more likely to have an active tropical storm or hurricane during Labor Day weekend than to be devoid of tropical activity. Atlantic tropical activity historically increases sharply from late August into early September, reaching its climatological peak around Sept. 10.
However, thus far in 2026, there have been only three tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal. The season is behind the historical pace for tropical storms and has yet to produce a hurricane. “The Atlantic is overdue for its first hurricane of the season,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said. “We typically see the first hurricane develop before Aug. 1.” Excluding Hurricane Alex, which formed unusually early in January 2016, the average date of the Atlantic season’s first hurricane over the past 10 years is July 27.
The latest that a season’s first Atlantic hurricane has developed during the satellite era is Sept. 11, a record shared by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. Before the satellite era, the 1914 season ended without a documented hurricane.
“It will be very difficult for a tropical system to enter the Caribbean this year because strong El Niño conditions are producing intense wind shear across the region,” DaSilva said. “I think this El Niño has the potential to become the strongest on record, or at least the strongest since 1950. If that occurs, the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season could be less active overall.”
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