AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring areas in the Gulf and waters off the west coasts of Central America and Mexico for possible tropical development during the start of the new month.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1, while the eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15.
Atlantic Basin is Under Close Watch
“Whenever there are slow-moving fronts or stalled areas of low pressure in the Gulf, northwest Caribbean, and the southwest Atlantic, there is reason to be concerned that a tropical storm or two may try to brew when conditions are favorable,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Both factors could contribute to the slow development of tropical activity near or a few hundred miles offshore of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula in the coming days. “An inhibiting factor through the first week of June will be disruptive breezes in the region, known as wind shear,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
A broad zone of clouds, showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Gulf, northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic through the first half of June. Some of this moisture may spread into the southeastern and central United States, providing at least limited drought relief in some areas.
The lack of organization within this expansive moist zone has so far limited flash flooding to localized areas.
Tracking the MJO, a Tropical Booster
A potential reduction in wind shear during the second week of June may coincide with a wave of enhanced upward motion in the atmosphere that slowly travels around the globe from west to east. This phenomenon, known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, enhances thunderstorm activity on one side and suppresses it on the other.
The thunderstorm enhancement zone will shift from the eastern Pacific during the first week of June to the Gulf, Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic around the second week of June. This pulse of thunderstorm activity can sometimes strengthen a developing tropical disturbance or depression and may even contribute to the formation of multiple tropical cyclones.
“Tropical development chances remain low at this time, but the Gulf, western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic will need to be monitored during the first two weeks of June,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Eastern Pacific May Become Active Quickly
The eastern Pacific may become active quickly at the start of June. “We are watching for two areas that have potential to develop during the first 10 days or so of June,” DaSilva said.
The first area, located more than 1,000 miles off the coast of Central America, is expected to drift west and will likely pose little concern beyond shipping interests. This area is likely to develop between June 3 and 6. Chances are it would fade before reaching Hawaii later in the month.
“One area near the coasts of Central America and southwestern Mexico could develop between June 6 and 10,” DaSilva said. “This feature could track close enough to the coast or turn toward the coast to bring heavy rain and wind.”
El Niño looms
Based on the ramp-up of a “Super” El Niño, which has the potential to be one of the strongest on record, this is likely to be a busy year for tropical activity in the eastern and central Pacific.
El Niño is a recurring warming of surface waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can alter weather patterns and influence the jet stream worldwide.
During El Niño years, tropical activity in the Atlantic often ranges from near-average to well below average because stronger, upper-level winds can inhibit storm development.
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