Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler’s Knob Sunday morning.
As CBS News reports, thousands of people gather every Feb. 2 to watch Phil make his big prediction at Gobbler’s Knob, about an hour and a half drive from Pittsburgh in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. This year’s crowd was one of the largest ever, Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel said.
After knocking on Phil’s burrow three times, the Inner Circle pulled Phil out of his stump. The Inner Circle’s president used his cane to speak “Groundhogese” with Phil, who chose the scroll containing his prediction. With a flourish, the scroll was unrolled and read. “It’s Groundhog Day and maybe life is on a loop, but I miss my burrow, I miss my coop. So I’m heading back down, there’s a shadow up here. Get ready for six more weeks of winter this year,” the scroll read.
But Phil’s predictions aside, here’s what meteorologists say about whether you’ll see an early spring.
The South is Warming Up
As USA Today reports, overall, folks wanting an early spring better head south, which is already seeing springlike signs: “The transition to springlike weather and warmer air is happening earlier than the historical average from the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in an email to USA Today on Friday. “There may be some temporary setbacks, but warm air is returning to Florida and the Gulf Coast states,” he added.
Federal scientists from the Climate Prediction Center, when reached by email last week, agreed with AccuWeather’s forecast, also noting that warm temperatures are likely over the southern tier throughout February.
Where will Winter Hang On?
Winter misery is forecast to hang on in much of the nation’s northern tier for the next few weeks. “The transition to springlike weather will be sluggish from the Northeast to the Great Lakes and the northern Plains. We expect some back-and-forth between mild stretches and blasts of colder and wintry weather over the next few weeks,” Pastelok explained.
The northwestern U.S. will be especially cold in early February, according to Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Johnna Infanti. “One of the regions to highlight in the beginning of February is the Northwest to the Northern Plains, which may see much below-normal temperatures,” she told USA Today in an e-mail. Along with the cold will come snow, which is also possible in the Northwest cities of Seattle and Portland in early February, Pastelok said.
What about the Polar Vortex?
As for the dreaded polar vortex, Pastelok said that there’s good news and bad news about it: The good news is that we may have seen the worst of winter’s cold in the first couple weeks of January during the extreme cold snap that enveloped much of the nation.
The bad news is that some signs that a “late disruption” in the vortex is possible later in February and in early March, which could funnel some colder, stormier weather into the Great Lakes and Northeast. “But that’s a low-confidence forecast,” he admitted.
What about Wildfires?
Ongoing dryness in the Southwest will exacerbate wildfire concerns over the next few weeks. There is a real concern about fires in Texas, Pastelok said.
What about Flooding and Tornadoes?
Pastelok said that another trend that meteorologists are watching in February and March is the chance for above-average rainfall and possible flooding in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with severe weather in the Deep South.
La Niña Will Be a Key Influence
“La Niña will be one of the key influences across the U.S. through at least April, although week-to-week weather variability may deviate from the typical La Niña pattern,” Infanti said. During La Niña, much of the southern tier of the U.S. experiences dryness, while the Northwest sees rain and snow.
La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
Infanti said that La Niña conditions are present, and are expected to persist through February-April 2025, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025.
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