The warm waters of the Caribbean Sea have been mostly untouched this hurricane season, making the region prime for tropical development.
Now, as AccuWeather reports, the conditions in the Caribbean are displaying the conditions that look favorable for tropical development mid week, like lower wind shear, or disruptive winds higher up in the atmosphere.
For over a week, AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring the Caribbean for potential tropical development around late October. “The tropical wave in the Caribbean is likely to develop into a named storm in the next few days,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, adding that a powerful hurricane is also possible.
In case you’re keeping track, the next Atlantic tropical storm will be named Melissa.
Even though confidence is growing on how strong the storm can get, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is more than one path that the developing storm could take. The weather pattern across the United States into next week could determine the ultimate track of this budding tropical storm.
Scenario 1: The early northward turn
“One possible scenario would take the storm north toward Hispaniola. This scenario is more likely if the tropical wave intensifies faster in the eastern Caribbean and gets guided north by a dip in the jet stream,” DaSilva explained. As it intensifies, the tropical system could move rather slowly to the north or northwest, over or just to the west of the mountainous island of Hispaniola, and then perhaps even stall over the region.
Round after round of heavy, tropical downpours would drench Hispaniola in this scenario. Several feet of rain is extremely possible should the storm stall anywhere near the island. This amount of rain is particularly concerning given Haiti’s ecological makeup and its lack of trees due to deforestation.
“Without trees across Haiti to help absorb some of the rain, days of tropical rainfall in this scenario would bring an extreme risk for mudslides and life-threatening flooding,” DaSilva said. Exactly how strong the storm gets would heavily influence how much wind damage would be possible across the islands. A hurricane packs sustained winds of at least 74 miles per hour.
Scenario 2: Westward track, possible US impacts
If the tropical wave is slower to strengthen, it is more likely to instead continue its westward track across the Caribbean.
Without being guided north by the jet stream, it would be able to continue moving northwest, south of Hispaniola and closer to Jamaica. Southern Haiti, Jamaica and the eastern half of Cuba could expect heavy, tropical downpours and windy conditions. Depending on how close the storm tracks to Jamaica and how slow it moves, the island could have over a foot of rain.
“There is even warmer water and less wind shear in the western Caribbean. So while this scenario would mean less wind impacts for the Caribbean islands this week, it’s still likely to become a tropical storm by the weekend,” DaSilva said. Should it make it to the western Caribbean, this would open the door for direct impacts on the United States.
“While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it’s still on the table should the tropical system make it into the western Atlantic,” warned DaSilva. Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana. But the eastern United States, and Florida in particular, can still be impacted by intense storms.
In recent years, Hurricane Wilma of 2005 rapidly strengthened in the western Caribbean before being pulled west of Cuba and then across southern Florida as a powerful hurricane. In 2018, Hurricane Michael was named in the western Caribbean before rapidly intensifying in the Gulf, becoming a Category 5 hurricane and striking the Florida Panhandle.
Even though the official end of the Atlantic tropical season is only about 45 days away, more tropical activity is still possible in the coming weeks. “Less than 12 percent of the Atlantic hurricane season is left, climatologically speaking, but no one should let their guard down,” DaSilva said. “The return of La Niña conditions – favorable to hurricanes – can lead to atmospheric patterns that are conducive to late-season tropical storm development.”
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