A major shift in the Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño climate pattern is increasingly likely to develop this summer and continue through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
As AccuWeather reports, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says La Niña conditions — when waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator are cooler than historical averages — are rapidly dissipating, leaving the world in a very unstable transitional period where extreme weather patterns can be prevalent. (Perhaps you’ve noticed an early heat dome in the West? Record blizzards and snowfall in the Midwest? Deadly tornadoes and rainfall across the South?)
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that occurs every few years. It develops when ocean water in the tropical Eastern Pacific near the equator is at least 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees F) above long-term averages for at least three consecutive months. This year’s El Niño could intensify into what forecasters call a “super El Niño,” defined as ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees C or greater above average in the ENSO region, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Last week, the CPC issued an El Niño watch, with forecasters estimating a 50–60% chance of a transition to El Niño in late summer and beyond.
Could this become a “super El Niño?”
While earlier forecast models pointed to a spring or early summer transition, the latest data suggests the shift may occur later in the year. “We feel El Niño will form this summer, early to mid is the expectations. Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Nino this fall into winter,” AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. “Water temperatures expected over the equatorial Pacific and Indian ocean are supporting an El Niño with impacts on the tropical season and southern U.S. moisture this summer and fall.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva says a transition to El Niño is expected this summer and is likely to strengthen during the peak of hurricane season. Currently, AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters and hurricane experts estimate there is a 15% chance of a super El Niño developing by the end of hurricane season in November.
It has been about a decade since the last super El Niño, with 2015–2016 and 1997–1998 reaching that benchmark. The 2023–2024 event came close but did not meet the official threshold.
How El Niño Impacts the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
If El Niño develops during the summer, one of the biggest impacts could be on the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks in September. “El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin,” Pastelok said. “This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year.”
Higher wind shear makes it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and strengthen. As a result, El Niño years often feature fewer tropical storms and hurricanes compared to La Niña seasons. El Niño can also shift where storms are more likely to form, with activity sometimes favored farther out in the Atlantic rather than closer to the U.S. coastline.
While that’s good news for the folks along the Atlantic coast, El Niño often has the opposite effect in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity typically increases. “The strength of El Niño late in the season could have a dramatic impact on late October/November activity,” DaSilva said. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the greater the chance for a quieter end to the season.”
However, beyond hurricanes, El Niño can significantly influence U.S. rainfall patterns. Parts of the West that have experienced prolonged drought conditions could get sweet relief with increased precipitation if the pattern strengthens later this year.
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