El Niño typically raises the risk of drought in Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel and Southern Africa, while increasing the threat of floods in East Africa and South America, according to the UN.
As AccuWeather reports, there is a growing chance of a super El Niño this year, which will have numerous weather-related impacts on much of the United States. A developing El Niño could bring more than shifts in seasonal storm tracks as humanitarian officials are warning that a possibly strong event could disrupt food production, water supplies and fisheries in vulnerable regions around the world.
AccuWeather meteorologists say El Niño is expected to develop around the start of summer and could reach “super El Niño” status as early as October or November. Later in 2026 or around the start of 2027, it may rival some of the strongest El Niño events in history.
The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is preparing to act ahead of a possibly strong El Niño. OCHA warns a strong El Niño can bring devastating floods, drought, widespread hunger, disease outbreaks and forced displacement. OCHA said El Niño typically raises the risk of drought in Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel and Southern Africa, while increasing the threat of floods in East Africa and South America.
Recent History Shows how Quickly Impacts can Cascade
Recent history shows how quickly those impacts can cascade. OCHA said the strong 2023-24 El Niño left more than 30 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in southern Africa, excluding the Democratic Republic of Congo. The region endured one of its worst droughts in more than 100 years, with some of the lowest rainfall in 40 years.
For farming communities, drought can shrink harvests, kill livestock and limit access to clean water. In areas that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture, a failed rainy season can leave families without crops to eat or sell, increasing the risk of hunger and malnutrition months after the weather pattern first develops.
Flooding can create a different but equally dangerous set of food and water problems. Heavy rain can wash out crops, contaminate drinking water, damage roads used to move food and medicine and increase the risk of waterborne disease. In places already facing conflict, poverty or repeated climate shocks, another round of floods or drought can leave communities with little time to recover.
El Niño can Disrupt the Ocean Food Chain
El Niño can also affect food supplies in the ocean. NASA scientists have found that strong El Niño events can reduce phytoplankton, tiny plants that form the base of the marine food chain. Warm El Niño waters can suppress the normal upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water along the equator and near the coasts of Chile and Peru.
“An El Niño basically stops the normal upwelling,” NASA ocean scientist Stephanie Uz said. “There’s a lot of starvation that happens to the marine food web.”
When phytoplankton decline, fish populations can drop as well, putting pressure on fisheries and the coastal economies that depend on them. NASA noted that the 1997-98 El Niño led to a major collapse in the anchovy fishery off Chile, causing economic hardship for fishermen along the coast.
The exact impacts of the developing El Niño will depend on how strong it becomes, where the warmest water sets up in the Pacific and how long it lasts. NASA scientists have found that East Pacific El Niño events, such as 1997-98, can have a larger impact on fisheries off South America than events centered farther west in the central Pacific.
Global Weather Effects are Likely Early in 2027
AccuWeather experts say the most significant global weather effects are likely early next year, even though some impacts may emerge later this year. In the United States, El Niño can bring more rain to the Midwest and parts of the West during summer, while drier stretches can develop from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast, with pockets of heavy rain still possible.
By winter, AccuWeather meteorologists will be watching for a more active southern storm track, wetter conditions in parts of the Southern states, warmer conditions in portions of the northern U.S. and an increased risk of weather extremes.
For humanitarian groups, the concern is not just the weather pattern itself, but the ripple effects that can follow: empty wells, failed crops, higher food prices, strained health systems and families forced to leave home in search of food, water or income.
OCHA said it is preparing in advance to protect people who could be exposed to a strong El Niño, reflecting a growing push toward early action before droughts, floods and hunger emergencies peak.
—
Photo Credit: Pedal to the Stock / Shutterstock.com
