Even though the storm that Rafael threatened has dissipated and passed, the never-ending 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season isn’t quite over yet.
As AccuWeather meteorologists report, a feature near the Bahamas that has been watched since last week is out of time due to an approaching front and a surge in wind shear, but the main part of the Caribbean remains a potential breeding ground for new tropical storms through the third week November at least.
Once again, just as with Rafael most recently, the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea will be conducive to tropical depression and storm formation, provided that moisture increases over the region, wind shear remains low, and the clustering of showers and thunderstorms continues—currently near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. That cluster will likely wander westward a bit in the next few days, when and where development is forecast to begin.
Thunderstorm activity has caused torrential downpours and flooding on some of the northern islands of the Caribbean in the past 24 hours, including in the British Virgin Islands. AccuWeather meteorologists outlined this area as a risk zone well over a week before any official source and have raised the development potential. This development risk is now at a high level.
North of the Caribbean, there will be a zone of wind shear that will initially tend to prevent the northward movement of any budding feature in the Caribbean. However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move northward, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may need to stay vigilant.
Should a feature organize, interests from Central America to southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico should monitor the Caribbean for budding tropical activity and related torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms beginning later next week.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Sara.
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