La Niña is rapidly disintegrating and according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) there is now a 60% possibility of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions between March and April, with a rising chance that El Niño could arrive in the Fall months.
While the transition to ENSO-neutral sounds pleasant enough and could even be gradual, it could trigger volatile, wet weather, offering relief from drought but increasing severe weather risks. What that means:
- No pattern is fully in control.
- Warm air surges, and cold air pushes back.
- Moist Gulf air crashes into it.
- That clash can spike severe weather risk to many areas, especially the southern region.
This is the atmospheric tug of war phase.
Overall, we are about to get a lot wetter as things continue to warm up, which is good for much needed drought relief, but can also usher in severe weather, like the tornadoes we’re currently seeing ravage the Midwest.
Wind and Water
As meteorologist Noah Bergren states, “precipitation wise, a large area of wetter than normal weather is likely with extra emphasis on the areas of Arkansas, west TN/KY, IN, and back into east Oklahoma. For Florida and the coastal Carolina’s, the opposite is true with likely worsening drought still yet, with days with high winds and low humidity yielding brush and wildfires. Several days 85+ temps possible in central/south Florida in this pattern in March 2026.”
“Transition years from La Niña to El Niño, that occur during spring, often are big tornado years. That is this year. We will end in El Niño for hurricane season but transition during spring tornado season. Data and pattern forecasts are very loudly showing a favorable zone for severe storms/tornadoes this March. Compared to average, especially the 1st half of March, looks very active for tornadoes and severe weather. The month overall will likely end up above to well above average.”
Bergren continues, “I expect a fast and potentially significant start to severe storm season in the Midwest and Mid-south. Some work done by meteorological researchers suggests that transition years like this start very busy, have a “lull” — then erupt with a major period of tornadoes further west into the Plains (KS, OK, TX) during later April and May compared to average. We’ll see how this pans out.”
Predictions This Time of Year Can Be Tricky
However, forecast uncertainty increases at longer lead times. Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she said.
Climate Change Factors into the Mix
Naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as El Niño and La Niña are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU). These take into account the influence of key climate variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode or the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.
The latest Update says that for March to May 2026, there is a widespread global signal for above-average land surface temperatures. Rainfall predictions in the equatorial Pacific show a lingering La Niña-like pattern, but in other parts of the world the signal is more mixed.
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