The Milwaukee Brewers have put themselves one victory away from the National League Championship Series. Now comes the tricky part: finishing the job in San Diego.
Milwaukee takes a 2-0 NL Division Series lead into Game 3 at Petco Park on Tuesday night after capturing a pair of comeback victories at home. For the Padres, there is no longer any room for a bad inning or a missed opportunity. A loss ends their season.
The Brewers will hand the ball to right-hander Dustin May, hoping his history against San Diego proves more important than his difficult finish to the regular season.
May struggled during the latter portion of his first season with Milwaukee, but his work against the Padres has been considerably more encouraging. In three starts against San Diego this year, May posted a 1.23 ERA. That track record gives Milwaukee reason to believe he can deliver in the biggest start of his Brewers tenure.
San Diego will answer with Nick Pivetta, whose return from a lengthy elbow injury provided an important late-season boost to the rotation. Pivetta posted a 1.64 ERA across five starts after returning from the injured list in September. His postseason experience continued in the Wild Card Series, where he worked 3 1/3 innings in his start.
The Brewers will again look toward Jackson Chourio to provide a spark at the top of the lineup. Chourio has driven in multiple runs in each of the first two games of the series and enters Game 3 with a .958 OPS in the NLDS.
Jake Bauers moves into the second spot in Milwaukee’s order, followed by William Contreras, Brice Turang and Christian Yelich. Garrett Mitchell, Cooper Pratt, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz complete the starting nine.
San Diego is making some adjustments with its season on the line. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains in the leadoff spot, while Jackson Merrill moves up to second ahead of Manny Machado. Ty France bats cleanup, followed by rookie catcher Ethan Salas.
Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Harris, Samad Taylor and Jake Cronenworth round out the Padres’ lineup. Taylor entered the starting nine after Gavin Sheets was scratched because of neck stiffness.
The bullpens could also play a major role. Milwaukee’s relief corps has yet to surrender a run in the series, combining for nine scoreless innings through Games 1 and 2. The travel day provided additional rest for a group that has repeatedly protected the Brewers in high-pressure situations.
San Diego’s bullpen should also be refreshed, giving the Padres options if Pivetta runs into early trouble. With elimination looming, there is little reason for San Diego to save arms for another day.
History adds another layer of pressure. Teams that have taken a 2-0 advantage in a best-of-five postseason series have gone on to win 83 of 93 times.
Milwaukee has one other piece of history to overcome. The Brewers entered Tuesday carrying an 11-game postseason road losing streak, with their last playoff victory away from home coming during the 2018 NLCS.
A win would end that drought in emphatic fashion and send Milwaukee into the next round.
For San Diego, the equation is considerably simpler. Win Tuesday night and play again. Lose, and the season is over.
