After what seemed a relatively stable fall season, COVID-19 is on the rise once again all across the United States, just before Americans prepare to celebrate the holidays.
In the past two weeks – since Thanksgiving, actually – COVID cases and hospitalizations have jumped more than 25%. Test positivity rates, ICU admissions and the levels of virus detected in wastewater have also increased at a national level. These are signs, experts say, that we may be entering a new COVID wave.
Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said at a press briefing on Monday that “this rise in cases and hospitalizations is especially worrisome as we move into the winter months, when more people are assembling indoors with less ventilation, and as we approach the holiday season, where many are gathering with loved ones across multiple generations.”
The timing of this uptick in COVID activity is also concerning given that many health systems across the U.S. are already dealing with an overwhelming number of patients stricken with RSV and influenza infections.
Before Thanksgiving, many experts predicted that an uptick in cases after the holiday could be expected, especially since many people have stopped taking measures to mitigate the spread of the virus, such as masking. Dr. Michael Chang, a pediatric infectious disease expert at UTHealth Houston and Children’s Memorial Hermann Hospital, said in an interview with Yahoo News that while gathering for Thanksgiving may have contributed to the recent rise in COVID-19 cases, changes in the virus itself are probably driving this wave of infections.
According to Yahoo News, the coronavirus has continued to mutate, as viruses do, and two new Omicron subvariants — known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — have now become dominant in the U.S. Both of these have replaced BA.5, the Omicron subvariant that had dominated infections in the U.S. since the summer. Together, they now account for 62% of cases nationwide.
Another factor experts say is contributing to the recent spike in COVID hospitalizations is waning vaccine protection. The shots have been shown to lose their effectiveness over time. This is why boosters are necessary to restore protection and are particularly important for those with the highest risk for severe COVID outcomes. So far, only 12.7% of eligible Americans have gotten the new bivalent booster, according to CDC data.
Although a rise in hospitalizations has been noted in all age groups, the majority of COVID-19 hospitalizations in recent weeks have been among older adults, particularly those who have not received a booster shot in the past six months. “Older people in our population above 65, especially those above 85 years of age,” Chang told Yahoo News, “we’re starting to see an increasing percentage of severe illness and hospitalizations and deaths in that age group again.”
Walensky has emphasized how important it is for all Americans who are eligible for the bivalent booster to receive it this season. She said those who have received only their primary series are considered fully vaccinated, but they are “not considered fully protected against severe disease this winter.” The new bivalent booster, she said, is the highest defense against COVID-19 severe disease at the moment. The shot, approved in September by the CDC, was developed to target the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, as well as the original strain of the virus.
Last week, the Food and Drug Administration also authorized the bivalent booster shots from Moderna and Pfizer for children as young as 6 months. The FDA said in a statement that it is important to get young children vaccinated ahead of the holidays and winter months. The bivalent booster shot ramps up to a high level of protection in about a week and offers the highest protection within two weeks, so experts recommend that people get vaccinated as soon as possible to be best protected before they travel and gather for the holidays.
Besides being up to date with their COVID-19 vaccinations and getting the bivalent booster, Chang said there are other steps people can take to prevent infection.
One is staying home if you feel sick. “I know most people are looking forward to visiting with their friends and family, but if you’re symptomatic at all — you know, sore throat, runny nose, even if you think it’s just a cold — I strongly recommend trying to stay home, trying to avoid going out again,” he said.
According to CDC guidance, everyone who tests positive for the virus, regardless of vaccination status, should isolate at home for five days. If symptoms resolve after that time, you can leave isolation, but should consider wearing a mask around others for five additional days.
The CDC continues to recommend masking for residents of counties that have high community levels of COVID-19, as well as for anyone who may be immunocompromised or at increased risk of severe disease. People traveling by plane or taking any form of public transportation should also consider masking, Walensky said. Improving ventilation and minimizing the size of gatherings whenever possible is also wise, Chang advises.
Finally, Walensky encouraged Americans if they test positive for COVID-19 to reach out to their health care provider immediately for early care. Some treatments are available, including the antiviral medication Paxlovid, which, if given within the first few days of illness, can shorten the duration and severity of the disease. All adults and children ages 12 and older are eligible for Paxlovid, but the CDC recommends first consulting a doctor to help decide which of the treatments available, if any, is right for you.
If you are still not sure what to do if you test positive for COVID this holiday season, the CDC has a step-by-step guide with advice on what to do and a list of resources available to everyone, for protecting against the virus.
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