The leaves may be turning and the temperature may be falling in parts of the U.S., but the tropics are far from done for the season. AccuWeather hurricane experts are warning that a tropical storm may soon form in the Atlantic, while a hurricane will be on the prowl close to Mexico this week.
These tropical threats come on the heels of a couple of days of quieter conditions in the Atlantic basin following hurricanes Humberto and Imelda, which both impacted Bermuda early last week before barreling toward northwestern Europe.
A new tropical storm is imminent in the Atlantic
Tropical storm number 10 of the Atlantic season appears to be mere days or hours away from forming, say AccuWeather hurricane experts, and it has a good chance of impacting land later this week.
“A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic is gradually becoming better organized and has been designated as Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. “It is becoming likely that this will organize into a tropical storm this week.” The next name on the Atlantic list is Jerry.
Despite the likelihood of formation, any tropical rainstorm or storm is still several days away from potentially impacting land, as it moves to the west over the central Atlantic; however, interests in the Caribbean should closely monitor the storm’s progress this week. “Steering winds may cause the storm to pass close to the northeastern Caribbean islands late this week or this upcoming weekend,” said Pydynowski. “This would bring a glancing blow of rain and wind.”
After that, a few scenarios for future movement are on the table, including a journey toward the west into the Caribbean Sea. According to AccuWeather hurricane experts, however, that is the least likely scenario, as it appears now. Still, with that window of movement being well over a week out, interests all across the Caribbean and along the East Coast of the U.S. should closely monitor the tropics through the middle of the month.
A country which recently sustained twin hits from Humberto and Imelda, is also at risk. “Impacts to Bermuda cannot be ruled out next week, depending on when the storm makes a more northward turn,” added Pydynowski.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather hurricane experts are indicating a low risk for tropical development off the Southeast coast from the Bahamas north to near the Carolinas later this week. The same slow-moving weather feature that may eventually develop tropically has been soaking the Sunshine State and other Gulf and Atlantic coastal communities with heavy rain since last week.
While the risk of tropical rainstorm or storm formation is low with this system, localized flooding, rough surf and tidal flooding, made only worse from this week’s expected king tides, will be possible over the next few days along the Southeast coast.
In the Eastern Pacific, a hurricane will brush Mexico
While we await a new tropical storm in the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific basin is already bustling with activity. On Sunday, Hurricane Octave and Hurricane Priscilla were churning to the west of Mexico. “Priscilla will skirt the western coast of Mexico, but pass just close enough to bring some locally heavy rain over the next few days,” said Pydynowski.
A few inches of rain that can cause flooding, wind gusts of 40-60 mph and rip currents are expected along a portion of the western coast of Mexico’s mainland, as well over the southern and western Baja California peninsula through Friday, say AccuWeather hurricane experts. Since the core of the hurricane is expected to remain offshore, Priscilla is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 8 inches for rain and 70 mph for wind.
“By next weekend, Priscilla could still be located off Baja or it may begin to dissipate west of the peninsula over cooler ocean waters,” added Pydynowski.
Meanwhile, Octave, located several hundred miles to the west of Priscilla, will pose no threat to land over the next few days and may actually merge its energy with Priscilla later this week. Of greater interest will be an area at a high risk for tropical development later this week to the south of Mexico.
“The next storm that may develop behind Priscilla between Oct. 8-11, and some of Priscilla’s moisture, could eventually result in locally heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Southwest and Four Corners in the U.S. by late this week and into next weekend,” said Pydynowski. The next name on the Eastern Pacific list is Raymond.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, while the Eastern Pacific season starts earlier on May 15 and also lasts until the end of November. “While many options remain possible with its future track, the most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes by the Caribbean islands,” says Pydynowski. “This would keep it east of the U.S. mainland.”
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