The first tropical storm of 2025 in the Western Hemisphere will be on the map this week off the southwestern coast of Mexico, about two weeks after the beginning of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
A Tropical Depression that is expected to officially develop into Tropical Storm Alvin is expected to form in the Eastern Pacific in the next 48 hours. It will be the first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season in the Western Hemisphere. The storm is currently brewing off the coast of Mexico and has a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.
What’s the Difference between a Tropical Depression and Storm?
A tropical depression and a tropical storm are both types of tropical cyclones, but they differ in wind speed. A tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 38mph (33 knots) or less, while a tropical storm has winds between 39 and 73mph (34-63 knots). Tropical storms also tend to have a more organized, circular structure with defined bands of thunderstorms.
“Alvin’s” Path
Tropical Depression One-E formed Wednesday afternoon several hundred miles south of Mexico’s Pacific Coast. It’s expected that this system will soon become Tropical Storm Alvin by Wednesday as it strengthens. There is a possibility that it could strengthen into a Hurricane, and if so, will bring heavy rain and wind to Mexico.
Is this storm a threat?
As The Weather Channel reports, the majority of computer forecast models suggest future-Alvin should continue moving west-northwest over the next day or two before it then turns northward.
After that, it is expected to move into a more hostile environment of wind shear, cooler water and drier air. What’s more uncertain is if the system will fizzle offshore, or if it will curl northeastward toward a part of the Mexican coast in a weakened state around Saturday.
At any rate, high surf and rip currents are likely along parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast west of Acapulco later this week. Bands of locally heavy rain can be expected near the coast generally to the north and east of the system’s track, with flash flooding and mudslides possible.
Remnant moisture from future Alvin in combination with an upper low could also ignite an uptick in thunderstorms over the Southwest U.S. this weekend.
The Season has just begun
As Weather Channel senior meteorologist Chris Dolce wrote about earlier this month, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season.
While many Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes move west-northwest and eventually fizzle in the open ocean, some do strike land, as we saw in 2023 with the remnant of Hurricane Hilary in the Desert Southwest and with Category 5 Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico.
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