A new tropical threat is brewing for Hawaii about a week after Hurricane Lala brought torrential rain, flash floods, mudslides and damaging winds. A tropical rainstorm southeast of the islands could strengthen into a hurricane before approaching Hawaii this weekend.
As AccuWeather reports, how much of an impact this strengthening rainstorm will have on the Big Island and the rest of the island chain in terms of rain- and wind-related issues will depend on its organization, strength and how close it tracks to the island. “We are now referring to the area of interest as a tropical rainstorm to raise public awareness and for planning purposes,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said on Wednesday.
The next name on the list of the Central Pacific storm list is Moke, with the assumption that a tropical storm does not form until reaching 140 degrees west longitude. If it were to develop farther to the east, it would be given an eastern Pacific name. The next name on the list is Iselle.
The Storm Could Intensify into a Hurricane
AccuWeather meteorologists believe the tropical rainstorm could intensify into a hurricane as it nears Hawaii, with the center of the storm projected to pass just south of the islands. “It appears the core of the storm will pass farther south of Hawaii than Lala did, perhaps 75-100 miles south of the Big Island,” DaSilva said. “Lala passed about 30 miles south of the southern tip of the Big Island last weekend.”
DaSilva cautioned that it depends on exactly where the storm’s center first forms within the mass of thunderstorms and how it begins to track. A general west-northwest drift is forecast. At this early stage, a general several inches to a foot or more of rain is likely on the Big Island, with the potential for more. The initial AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 24 inches.
“The rainfall amounts are going to be largely dependent on the storm track, which could move farther south and largely miss the islands,” DaSilva said. “That doesn’t mean there wouldn’t be significant impacts to land, though.”
Hawaii is Already Saturated, and Still Trying to Clean Up from Lala
The ground also remains saturated in some areas, especially on the Big Island, after multiple feet of rain from Lala, and erosion and mudslides have damaged infrastructure. Top-heavy trees in wet soil may be more prone to falling, even if winds are weaker than they were during Lala.
Flooding and debris flows washed out roads and damaged bridges in the Kau District on the southern end of Hawaii Island, where floodwaters carried massive boulders and debris through the community and swept structures from their foundations, isolating some communities. Gov. Josh Green previously said more than 100 homes on Hawaii Island were swept away during Lala. Communication remained difficult in the area after flooding knocked down power poles and left mud several feet deep.
Should the storm be sprawling, as Lala was, there could still be drenching downpours capable of producing flash flooding well to the north, despite a more southerly track. Should the storm become more compact, there could be less rain or no rain at all farther north across the islands. However, problematic rainfall appears highly likely over at least the southern part of the Big Island, with the potential for significant impacts from rain and wind there and farther north and northwest across the island chain.
“At this time, the earliest showers and thunderstorms from the system are expected to spread across the Big Island on Sunday and then extend westward from there,” DaSilva said.
Lala lives on as a major central Pacific hurricane, moving towards Alaska
Meanwhile, Lala has strengthened significantly since departing Hawaii. As of early Wednesday morning, Hawaii time, Lala was a Category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph about 800 miles west-southwest of Kauai.
“We expect Lala to be mainly a threat to shipping over the North Pacific during the next week or so due to mountainous seas, heavy squalls and powerful winds,” DaSilva said. “Lala will pass well east of Midway Atoll late this week and this weekend.”
Lala will send some long-period swells eastward to Hawaii into this weekend, which will cause heavy surf in some west-facing shorelines. Lala could approach parts of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands later next week as a tropical wind and rainstorm.
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