Meteorologists say activity in the Atlantic – which has been fairly quiet in the last weeks of August – will ramp up as we enter September.
As USA Today reports, the dry, dusty air from Africa that prevents storms from developing in the Atlantic is forecast to wane. Says AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, “the dust will go away, and allow for the Atlantic to wake up.” He added that water temperatures in many parts of the ocean are plenty warm for storms to develop and thrive.
Closer to home, DaSilva said water temperatures in Gulf of Mexico are at record levels. “If anything develops in the Gulf, it could take off very quickly. People have to pay attention: Storms can rapidly evolve and intensify rapidly.”
Computer models also show more activity in the Atlantic in September: “Long-range models are becoming increasingly confident that the deep Atlantic tropics will soon spawn a system worth tracking, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that a busy September and/or October lie ahead,” meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson wrote on their blog Yale Climate Connections.
A Lull in the Atlantic Hurricane Season
So far this year, there have been more storms in the Pacific than the Atlantic, and that’s a bit of a surprise, forecasters say. In addition, it’s been eerily calm in the Atlantic over the past week or so as we approach what’s traditionally the busiest time of the season.
“It is quiet out there,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today on Monday. “I certainly wasn’t expecting this when we put out our most recent seasonal forecast!” Klotzbach said that if we look at named storms (tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes), the last time that we went from Aug. 21 to Sept. 2 with no named storm activity in the Atlantic was 1997.
Meanwhile, it’s been Busy in the Pacific
As portions of Hawaii’s Big Island recover from the flooding rains and damaging winds of Tropical Storm Hone, residents across the state on Wednesday were gearing up for Tropical Storm Gilma or its remnants.
The storm has yet to trigger any land advisories as it churns in open waters, but forecasters warned Wednesday that “the remnants of Gilma may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian Islands as early as Friday, lasting through Saturday.” Residents across the state continued to prepare for the rare back-to-back storms.
On its current track, forecasters expect Gilma to begin swiping the state late this week and into the weekend as it pushes just north of the islands.
Tropical Storm Hector is also spinning in the Pacific but is forecast to weaken into a remnant low on Thursday, the hurricane center said. Although its remnants might move across Hawaii over the weekend, “no significant impacts are expected from remnants of Hector at this time,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said.
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