AccuWeather meteorologists say that the active streak of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean could continue, with another system possible before the end of the month.
With four named tropical systems already this season, 2023 is looking to begin at a faster-than-normal pace. On average, the fourth named tropical storm of the season usually occurs around August 15, which is still more than three weeks away.
Hurricane Don, located over the middle of the ocean, strengthened into the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season last Saturday, several weeks ahead of schedule. On average, the first hurricane of the season forms around August 11, according to NOAA.
As AccuWeather forecasters stated last week, additional tropical development is possible during the final days of July and the first week of August.
“A weak area of low pressure moving across the tropical Atlantic will have to be monitored for development over the next few days as it tracks to the west toward the Lesser Antilles,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty, noting that dry air and moderate amounts of wind shear were inhibiting development early this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists are giving this tropical wave a low chance for development through Tuesday. Should this tropical system strengthen into a tropical storm, with sustained winds in excess of 39 mph, it would be given the name Emily.
Several other tropical waves are expected to push off the coast of Africa and trek across the Atlantic Ocean through the middle of this week. Development cannot be ruled out entirely, though any tropical wave will have to avoid wind shear and dry air in order to become a named tropical system.
However, looking into next week, as the calendar turns from July to August, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is a greater potential for tropical systems to develop in the Atlantic.
“Later this week and into next week, wind shear across the main development region of the Atlantic Ocean is expected to lessen, increasing the chances for tropical development,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Just last year, there were no named storms in the Atlantic during the entire month of August for the first time in 25 years.
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