The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has been well above the historical average in terms of the number of storms, although compared to recent hyperactive seasons, it has largely flown under the radar, as the majority of the tropical storms and hurricanes have remained over the open waters of the ocean. With only a few weeks left before the season officially ends on Nov. 30, AccuWeather is ready to issue a critical update for the remainder of the season.
Of the 19 named storms this year, only three made landfall in the United States as bonafide tropical systems. Tropical Storm Harold was the first to strike, making landfall on Padre Island, Texas, on Aug. 22. One week later, Hurricane Idalia roared ashore in Florida as a powerful Category 4 hurricane, the strongest system to make landfall during the season. Tropical Storm Ophelia was the third and final tropical system to directly impact the contiguous U.S., making landfall in North Carolina on Sept. 22.
Hurricane Lee made a close brush to the U.S. with some impacts being felt along the coast of New England, but the storm ultimately made landfall in Nova Scotia on Sept. 16. Philippe impacted the same parts of the U.S. and Canada in early October, but did so after transitioning from a hurricane to a tropical wind and rainstorm.
There are still three weeks left in the waning hurricane season, but the remainder of the year will not resemble the heart of hurricane season. No direct U.S. impacts are expected throughout the remainder of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather experts say.
The call was made after AccuWeather Veteran Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok and AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva analyzed ongoing weather patterns across the basin and various weather forecasting models. “The hurricane season is over for the United States, we are not expecting any [more] landfalling storms,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno added. “Before we make an announcement like this, we don’t do so without a lot of thought and a lot of care.”
One of the biggest factors of the late-season hurricane forecast is wind shear, which will suppress tropical activity in the coming weeks. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction throughout different layers of the atmosphere. For a tropical system to develop and strengthen, wind shear needs to be low. The higher the wind shear, the more difficult it is for a tropical system to organize and strengthen.
“It’s not a 0% chance of development, but it [will be] very, very difficult for tropical development from here on out,” Kottlowski said.
Despite the widespread disruptive winds, there is one other factor that could help a storm spin up.
Water temperatures across most of the Atlantic hurricane basin remain above the historical average, providing a key ingredient to fuel a fledgling tropical system. While the chances for new tropical development are low, a small break in the disruptive wind shear could present an opportunity for a new tropical system to tap into the warm waters and take shape.
“The area that we are looking at right now is the southwestern Caribbean,” Kottlowski said. However, no system is anticipated to form in this area in the short term. Even if a tropical storm does develop in the Caribbean, it is unlikely to make a direct strike on the contiguous U.S.
—
Photo Credit: Trong Nguyễn / Shutterstock.com