The World Health Organization’s (WHO) chief scientist states that Dengue fever will become a major threat in the southern United States, southern Europe and new parts of Africa soon, as warmer temperatures create the conditions for the mosquitoes carrying the infection to spread.
The illness has long been a scourge in much of Asia and Latin America, causing an estimated 20,000 deaths each year. Rates of the disease have already risen eight-fold globally since 2000, driven largely by climate change as well as the increased movement of people and urbanization.
As The New Humanitarian reports, with an El Niño weather phase predicted over the coming months — when Pacific ocean temperatures are warmer for an extended period and much of the planet is expected to be warmer than usual – they worry the situation could get out of control.
“We didn’t learn the lessons of the COVID pandemic,” said Christian Requena, regional head of the national medical association in Piura, the northern region of Peru that was hit hardest by the country’s worst dengue outbreak on record between March and July. “With the climate phenomena that are coming, it could be disastrous.”
Dengue is now endemic in most countries in Latin America, but outbreaks have been spreading into new areas globally, and case numbers around the world have been rapidly increasing this year. Scientists say the warming climate is not only bringing more countries and regions in temperate, cooler zones into the range of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, but it is also increasing the pace of breeding and transmission.
According to reports, in late September, both the Bangladeshi authorities and doctors in Sudan warned that hundreds had died and that health services were strained. Several other nations were on alert as well, including Argentina, Bolivia, Jamaica, Peru, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease now found in 130 countries, is often symptom-free, but it can also cause high fevers, body aches, nausea, and rashes. Severe cases can be deadly. There is no specific treatment and no known cure. Dengue has been on the rise worldwide in recent decades, registering an eight-fold increase between 2000 and 2022, and more than half the world’s population is at risk, according to the World Health Organization. That figure is only expected to increase.
Experts say an early response to the first cases, with the support of local communities to eliminate breeding sites around homes, can help prevent outbreaks. Meanwhile, the scientific community is working on new vaccines and developing new methods to fight the mosquito responsible for the infection.
Dengue receives less attention and less funding than malaria, which historically has killed 10 times more people in an average year. But that situation could be changing, largely due to rising global temperatures from climate change. As temps rise, the Anopheles mosquitoes that cause malaria – and are less tolerant of high temperatures – are likely to decline. The Aedes species responsible for dengue will spread, Michael Macdonald, an entomologist who has worked as a consultant to the WHO and other international groups, told The New Humanitarian.
“Malaria will soon be in the past, but dengue is the future,” Macdonald said. “We’ve got to learn to deal with it.”
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